Gavin Newsom is leading Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nomination market at around 27%, which is the real data point behind D'Souza's post. Everything else — calling the candidate silly, shameless, corrupt, and callous — is pure invective with no specific allegation to evaluate. What the post leaves out: a 27% implied probability in a wide-open field isn't dominance, and the same market has Ocasio-Cortez, Harris, and Ossoff all clustered in the single digits, so 'serious contention' is doing heavy lifting here.