JPMorgan analysis projects Iran would be forced to sharply cut oil exports if a US-imposed tanker blockade at the Strait of Hormuz persists beyond 15-30 days, potentially removing roughly 1.9 million barrels per day from global supply. Oil prices have already risen 3% on uncertainty about whether US-Iran peace talks will ease the disruption, but the energy industry is planning for prolonged Hormuz instability regardless of negotiations outcome. The article frames this as a timeline Iran faces rather than examining the US blockade's broader impact on global energy markets or OPEC responses — it focuses on Iran's constraint without contextualizing how alternative shipping routes, strategic reserves, or Saudi production adjustments might offset losses.