The IMF released its April 2026 growth forecasts today, projecting 2.3% US growth, weaker expansion across Europe (0.5-0.9%), and stronger growth in India (6.5%) and China (4.4%). The forecasts reflect a 0.2-point global downgrade from January due to the Iran conflict's oil shock, which Reuters reports could push oil to $110-125/barrel under stress scenarios. The IMF is using a 'reference forecast' assuming short-lived conflict rather than its traditional baseline, signaling elevated uncertainty about whether these projections hold if Middle East tensions escalate further.