Since Trump took office in January 2025, Democrats have consistently outperformed in special elections and now lead the generic congressional ballot for the first time in three years, suggesting a favorable midterm environment heading into 2026. Democrats flipped 30 state legislative seats and improved their margins by 11-13% on average compared to the 2024 presidential race, driven partly by Trump's low approval rating (39%) and voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the Iran war. The trend historically favors the party out of power in midterms, but translating state-level momentum to federal House races remains uncertain.