China's economy grew 5% in the first quarter of 2026, beating economist expectations and accelerating from 4.5% growth in the prior quarter. The Iran war, which began in late February, had limited visible impact on Q1 numbers — but Reuters and Bloomberg report that March exports slowed sharply to 2.5% growth, signaling the war's disruption to global energy prices and demand is already hitting Chinese shipments. The IMF this week cut its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.4%, below Beijing's stated 4.5-5% target, as economists warn that a prolonged war and sustained energy cost inflation could dent growth by the second half of the year.