US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran retains extensive missile capabilities and operational sites along the Strait of Hormuz that enable it to threaten shipping and disrupt traffic there. About 20% of global oil passes through the strait, so this capability gives Iran a significant economic lever — the assessment suggests Tehran could use this threat in future negotiations or escalations. During the recent February-June 2026 conflict, Iran demonstrated an ability to threaten and partially disrupt the strait and impose costs on global energy markets. A framework peace agreement was expected to be formally signed within days of this report, but the underlying strategic calculus has shifted: Iran proved it can execute this disruption if it chooses.