FedEx and UPS announced they will refund customers for tariffs the companies paid after the Supreme Court ruled those levies illegal in February 2026. UPS alone expects to refund over $5 billion, while the total tariff refund across all companies could exceed $150 billion. The question now is whether these refunds will actually reach consumers or whether companies will absorb the savings — retail companies like Costco operate on different models than shipping firms, so outcomes may vary across industries.