Sweden's military intelligence chief told the Financial Times that Russia is manipulating economic data to hide a real budget deficit of about $30 billion and actual inflation rates much higher than officially reported—while benefiting from higher oil revenues due to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Russia needs oil prices above $100/barrel all year just to cover existing deficits, and Swedish intelligence warns the economy faces either long-term decline or an economic shock. The underlying facts are well-sourced from an on-record intelligence official and corroborated by Russian government admissions of GDP contraction, though the framing emphasizes the crisis dimension without detailing what offset mechanisms or non-energy sectors might be sustaining economic activity.