14-Day "Trump Ceasefire" Arrives: Why I’m Significantly Reducing My Positions Amid Today’s Violent Rebound? Today's market performance has indeed been crazy: the Dow rose 2.6%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.2%, and oil prices finally fell below the $100 mark. The world seems to have breathed a sigh of relief, but before you rush in with the crowd, take a close look at the underlying logic of this agreement. The looming "14-day countdown" This is not a peace agreement at all, but a "temporary pause button" forcibly reached just 10 minutes before Trump's ultimatum expired. The reality is: Israel has made it clear that the ceasefire does not include actions against Hezbollah, and the smoke over southern Beirut has not yet cleared. If there is no substantial breakthrough in the negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program within 14 days, the market will face a much harsher blow by the end of April. I am cautious when others are greedy. Today's strong rebound technically looks more like a bull trap. This emotionally-driven surge provides excellent exit liquidity for big money. When retail investors buy in out of fear of missing the rebound (FOMO), it is precisely the window for institutions to reduce positions and lock in profits. The fundamentals have not changed: the energy crisis and systemic geopolitical risks have only been postponed, not resolved. Both sides have gained a brief breathing space to replenish ammunition. I will not be buying any positions here. On the contrary, I am decisively reducing high-risk positions with today's gains and increasing my cash ratio. I would rather hold cash and watch over the next 14 days than be trapped in a market that drops 5% on the open if negotiations break down in half a month. Are you planning to adjust and exit now, or hold your positions?