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Prof. Sam LawleronMastodon22d ago
I calculated an average of 1 collision avoidance maneuver every 75 seconds in the Starlink megaconstellation based on the numbers they gave in their last conjuction report. But sure, launch more Starlinks.
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/every-spacex-starlink-satellite-has-to-dodge-a-collision-almost-weekly-and-experts-fear-the-worst
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Analysis Summary
Starlink satellites performed over 355,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the past year—roughly one every 75–90 seconds fleet-wide, with individual satellites dodging other objects about weekly. The author is flagging that despite these high numbers, SpaceX continues launching more satellites, which space experts worry increases the risk of actual collisions. SpaceX's own data shows the congestion problem is real and growing, but the company hasn't meaningfully slowed deployment.
Claims Analysis (2)
“1 collision avoidance maneuver every 75 seconds in the Starlink megaconstellation based on their conjunction report numbers”
SpaceX reported 355,000+ maneuvers annually. 355,000 maneuvers ÷ 365 days ÷ 1,440 minutes/day = ~0.67 maneuvers/minute or 1 every ~90 seconds fleet-wide. Author's 75-second calculation is in the right ballpark but slightly aggressive; the precise rate depends on which figures from the conjunction report are used.
“Each Starlink satellite dodges collisions almost weekly”
Space.com article explicitly states this figure, corroborated by SpaceX's own conjunction reports cited in the piece.
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