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Chuck DarwinonMastodon17h ago
Following California implementing a law raising its minimum wage to $20 for more than 500,000 fast-food workers in the state in 2024,
Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of research firm Beacon Economics, offered a warning about the state raising its minimum wage.
βCaliforniaβs well-intended push to reduce income inequality via wage floors is beginning to have a significant negative impact on some of our most vulnerable workers
βour youth, particularly those from lower-income households,β
he wrote earlier this year.
His concerns echoed those of fast-food franchise owners, one of whom told Fortunein 2024 that higher wages would be unsustainable for smaller chains with slim margins.
But nearly two years after the lawβs passage, economists are seeing very different results than what was initially feared.
A working paper from University of California at Berkeley released this month found the policy increased average weekly wages for eligible workers by 11% and did not reduce employment.
Prices increased modestly, about 1.5%, or the equivalent of about six cents for a $4 item.
βThe results are nowhere as dire as predicted,β
Michael Reich, the study author and chair of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at UC Berkeley, told Fortune
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-warned-california-not-raise-110500084.html?guccounter=1
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Analysis Summary
California's $20 fast-food minimum wage law increased worker wages by 11% without cutting jobs, and prices rose just 1.5βthe opposite of economists' dire warnings. Economists who predicted disaster got it wrong; UC Berkeley's new research shows modest price increases and no employment loss. The data suggests minimum wage fears were overblown, and higher wages may actually benefit restaurants through lower worker turnover and productivity gains.
Claims Analysis (5)
βCalifornia implemented a law raising its minimum wage to $20 for more than 500,000 fast-food workers in the state in 2024β
Well-documented policy change. Article confirms law passage in 2024.
βChristopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, warned the wage increase would harm vulnerable workers, particularly youth from lower-income householdsβ
Direct quote attributed to Thornberg in article. Warning and concern documented.
βA UC Berkeley working paper released this month found the policy increased average weekly wages for eligible workers by 11% and did not reduce employmentβ
Article cites specific study findings. Michael Reich (study author) quoted confirming 11% wage increase and no employment reduction.
βPrices increased modestly, about 1.5%, or the equivalent of about six cents for a $4 itemβ
Article provides exact figure and calculation. Math checks: 1.5% of $4 = 6 cents.
βNearly two years after the law's passage, economists are seeing very different results than what was initially fearedβ
Substantively accurateβearly predictions were dire; actual outcomes were less negative. Minor imprecision: nearly two years from 2024 law = early 2026, and we're in mid-April 2026, so roughly 1.3 years have passed, not quite two.
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