Tax season was supposed to bring big refunds. So far they're less than expected

NPR reports that tax refunds for the 2026 season are averaging $350 more than the same point last year, falling significantly short of Republican projections that anticipated refunds closer to $1,000 due to tax changes in the Big Beautiful Bill Act. The reporting comes from NPR's Stephan Bisaha, a named journalist at a major national outlet with strong editorial standards, and the article appears grounded in specific refund figures, though the depth of sourcing (named officials, IRS data citations) is not visible in the provided metadata. Multiple outlets including Axios and the Columbus Dispatch corroborate that refunds are up year-over-year but underperforming expectations; notably, an NPR follow-up piece notes that Americans perceive little personal benefit from the tax changes despite the larger refunds, suggesting a disconnect between policy intent and public perception. Critical readers should monitor whether final season refunds move closer to projections, IRS explanations for the gap between expected and actual outcomes, and how Republicans and Democrats frame the discrepancy heading into 2026 elections.